Romney's current popularity

(via Tumblr) The best news I've seen so far today came in the form of a graph from Newsweek, posted on Tumblr:

Romney's current popularity suggests that, if the election were held today, there's less than a 4% chance of his winning.  Now, things could dramatically change in the next month, but I don't think they will.  (If it gets any worse, it would be pretty cool to see Romney actually drop out of the race -- but I don't think that's going to happen.)

This doesn't mean Obama has 96% of the votes -- it just means that the gap between people who intend to vote for Romney and people who intend to vote for Obama is big enough that Obama's victory is nearly guaranteed.  This is not likely to be a close race.

His comments in the recently linked private fundraiser tape seem to line up with the big drop down from around 25% chance to around 4%, which likely pushed a lot of undecided voters toward Obama, and motivated a lot of people who weren't likely to vote to get out and vote not for Obama but against Romney.  (I am not a political expert.)

Of course, these kinds of predictions aren't guarantees.  In 2009, Question 1 on Maine's ballot passed despite over 60% of the state's population supporting the legalization of same-sex marriage.  (Question 1 in 2009 sought to repeal the bill that had formally legalized gay marriage.  In this year's election, Question 1 on the Maine ballot seeks to overturn that decision, so passing would be a positive for the LGBT community this time.)

And, the election isn't today.  Romney has a while yet to get his chances back up.  But, he keeps saying horrible things all the time, so I don't think his odds are that good.