Am I getting worse at writing or better?

In the last couple weeks, everything I write has seemed really, really terrible.  Not in just a low-self-esteem kind of way:  I'm making mistakes I didn't think I'd make, and I'm looking at them and failing to work out how to fix them. I can imagine that two things are happening here:

1. I'm exhausted and sliding into a depressive episode, and it's affecting my ability to write coherently, or

2. I have reached a new threshold in my writing, and I'm suddenly noticing tons of stuff that has always sucked about my writing, that I am now in a place to start improving.

I'm going to assume for the purposes of my own wellbeing that it's the latter.